Beniamino Quintieri, chairman of Ice, the Institute for Foreign Trade, analyses the results for foreign trade concerning the June and July period presented by Istat within its site.

The situation
The situation emerging from the Istat results for foreign trade for the first six months of 2001 can be considered positive, on the whole: Italian exports have registered a variation trend of 12,3%, whereas imports have grown by 10,2%. From the comparison of the two results we gather, in the first semester of 2001, a positive trade balance of 2.003 billion, which was on the other hand negative by 2.600 billion in the first semester of 2000.

In the second trimester 2001, compared to the first, we see a deceleration of our exports, especially towards the European Union. In fact, whereas total exports have tendentially increased by 15,9% in the first trimester 2001, the increase in the second trimester is of 8,7%. Concerning EU countries, exports have grown by 18% in the first trimester 2001, whereas they increased only by 5,6% in the second.

In particular, the slowdown towards the EU markets is given by Germany towards which, in the month of June, the flexure of our sales has continued,  a flexure which had already been recorded in the month of May caused by the slowdown of German economy.

The only countries in the European Union that continue to record substantial increase in Italian exports are Benelux, Ireland and Finland.

Deceleration has concerned almost all sectors: in particular, for the month of June there have been negative variations form sales of furniture, mans of transportation and textile-clothing.

As far as countries outside the European Union are concerned, the July figures higlight a slowdown of exports owed in particular to flexures with Turkey, Asiatic NIEs and the Mercosur. Positive ongoing have still been recorded especially in China, in Eastern Europe, in the Opec countries and, even if to a lesser extent, in Japan and Switzerland, whereas the non-brilliant trend of exports to USA continues.

For Mercosur figures of the first months of 2001 had marked a reprise compared to the negative values recorded in 2000 but the recent Argentine crisis and the weakness of the USA conjuncture have conditioned its performance in the following months.

If, all considered, figures reported by Istat on foreign trade can be considered positive, prospects for the second semester 2001 are less promising.

September.2001